Unemployment, Re-Employment, and the Boston Office Market

And the unemployment rate DROPS from 9.3 % to 8.9 % in Massachusetts in one month. So much for the bad vibe folks who enjoy predicting bloodbaths in commercial real estate or the addition of 65,000 to the unemployment lines. Yes, if you have read any local paper, especially those that cover the real estate business, you have read these articles as recently as 3 days ago. After all, the "experts" said so.

Bu this drop is no surprise to me. I have frequently referred to the impact that the steady and large net inflows into Boston's mutual funds industry would have on the office market where they and their affiliated industries account for over 47% of the Class A market. As early as August, one could pick up the heavier level of activity in the market. As I projected then, we would and did see higher demand and net positive absorption in the 3rd quarter.

And today's announced unemployment drop, I believe, is evidence of the Re-Employment taking place in Boston.

My estimates of gross demand--the total square footage of tenants actively in the market seeking space in a defined time period--have increased. At the end of the 3rd quarter, I saw this cumulative demand in 2010 and 2011 at roughly through 2011 at roughly 6.1 million square feet. Today, the gross demand number has reached 8.6 million square feet. The chart below breaks out gross demand by calendar year, numbers of tenants, and their median and average size.

The initial surge of a recovering market, which first evidenced itself in late summer, has caused every tenant to examine their alternatives in light of what their competitors are doing. It is the class second stage of recovery and I simply refer to it as the "snowball" effect. Stage 3, which we will see my mid March is a very happy stage for landlords! Stay tuned.

Market Demand 2009 through 2011

Typical Tenant
Year # of Tenants Gross Demand Median Average
2009 143 2,900,000 16,700 29,000
2010 154 3,800,000 16,600 33,200
2011 110 4,800,000 24,600 56,000